you are at a party with a friend and 10 people are present including you and the friend. your friend makes you a wager that for every person you find that has the same birthday as you, you get $1; for every person he finds that does not have the same birthday as you, he gets $2. would you accept the wager?

Might be my friend is smart in probability! :)

ReplyDeleteIn the group of 10, the probability that I will have same birthday is 2.7%. For 10 people, I won't even have a change that atleast one of them will have same birthday as mine. Inother words, the friend will have 97.3% change to win the game.

Not fair for me :).

As per birthday paradox analogy atleast 23 people are needed in the party to have 50% probability that *any* two of them will have same birthday. If the target is *one* we need atleast 252.6 ~ 253 people in the party to have 50% chance.

Is this correct, or any lacuna?