Saturday, July 16, 2011

Car in an highway


probability of observing a car in 30 minutes on a highway is 0.95, what is the probability of observing a car in 10 minutes (assuming constant default probability)?

As usual, it's convenient to consider the opposite (i.e. the probability of not observing any car for 30 minutes = 0.05, which is the equivalent to the probability x of not observing car for the first 10mins and the second 10 mins and the third 30 min and all of them are x^3 = 0.05 assuming uniform distribution -> x = cubic_root (0.05). So we know the probability of not observing cars for 10 minutes x, our answer is 1 - x , x = 0.37)

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